Unemployment Notes

Employment and Unemployment

Start with the total population of the US:

          Subtract those under 16

          Subtract those in the Armed Forces and "institutionalized"

This leaves you with the "Non-Institutional Adult Civilians":

          Subtract those already retired and the “homemakers”

          Subtract full time students over the age of 16

          Subtract the "discouraged" (those not looking)

This leave you with the "Civilian Labor Force": This includes:

                   Employed Full Time or Part Time, counted

                        during the week of the 12th of the month.

                   Employed unpaid workers in family businesses,

                        if working over 15 hours in that business.

                   Those on sick leave, on strike, or on vacation

                        during the week of the 12th of the month.

                   Unemployed because they are actively looking for work but can't find work, or are waiting for better careers, or seasonal changes.

Four Kinds of Unemployment

"Good" or "OK" Unemployment:

1.  Frictional:  We are between jobs because we choose new opportunities, choices, lifestyles, education levels, etc.

2.  Seasonal:  We are waiting for the correct season to conduct our trade and know the interruption in work is temporary and natural.  We plan wages and hours accordingly.

                        "Bad" Unemployment (Looking but can't find):

3.  Cyclical:  The business cycle has turned against us and business is bad for a while. We wait or seek government help.

4.  Structural:  Technology and times have changed, therefore what we do no longer fits the market.  Now what?

Official Employment Statistics

Start with the total population of the US.

Subtract

Subtract

Subtract

This leaves the “Non Institutional Adult” population.

Subtract

Subtract

Subtract

Subtract

This leaves the “Civilian Labor Force”

Count

Count

Count

Count

Subtract

This becomes the “Unemployment Rate” in %

0 to 3%	Overextended economy, war economy
4 to 5%	“Full Employment” Unemployment Rate (Efficient)
6 +    %	“Weak” Economy or “Recession” Economy
25%	Highest official unemployment rate in 1933

Frictional Unemployment:

(Seasonal Unemployment):

Cyclical Unemployment:

Structural Unemployment: