Thursday, April 2, 2015

Balance of Payments Notes

Bureau of Economic Analysis and BOP Data
bea.gov

Current Accounts
          Goods: Consumer, Capital, Agricultural
          Services:  Receipts versus Payments
                   (includes Travel, Royalties, License Fees)

Capital Accounts
          “Net Capital Account Payments”

Financial Accounts
          Assets:  Purchases of Securities, Direct Investment Payments

Official Reserve Assets

Balances of Payments:  Notes

Why are nations expected to record BOP?
To establish the ability to balance accounts and trade in the future
Individuals and Businesses are expected to record balances like:
Job income, interest income, consumption payments, investment payments
Nations are therefore expected to operate in similar, responsible ways.
This helps stabilize currencies and trade expectations for future investments
International BOP can be summarized as a ledger sheet for each trading nation.


A Caution About Terminology

The four major textbooks, the BEA, the IMF, and several professor’s articles all
used variations of the main labels of this unit.  None agreed on all of the names of sub-units.  You add to this the AP use of terms and the situation is, at best, confusing.  However, there seems to be growing consensus on some compromises.  I will use these compromises from now on and feel confident that if we prepare students for possible variations, they can sort the names out correctly.

“Most BOP presentations give you two large categories:  a Current Account, which includes trade, and a Capital Account, which includes sales and purchases of assets.  The IMF uses this basic division, but they call the Capital Accounts the “Financial Account”…  What’s not fair is that they have (also) named one of the more obscure sub-categories of the Financial Account the “Capital Account”.  So what the IMF calls the capital account is not what most textbooks call the capital account.  Worse, they keep moving it (to new and different account columns).
(Dr. Danby, University of Washington)

A Safe Consensus

Keep calling a Current Account item a Current Account

Call what AP used to label as Capital Account as a Capital and Financial Account.  Tell students that this is a likely update and that they should watch out for older labels. 




Summary of Terms that Students need to Know
Current Account (CA)
An immediate and final transaction
  CA Net Exports
  CA Balance of Trade
  CA Balance on Goods & Services
  CA Trade Balance
Export values minus Import values
(Goods and Services)
Tourism Expenditures
  CA Net Investments
Payments on prior stock and bond investments like dividend payments
  CA Net Transfers
Aid, Transfers and Remittances, Royalty Payments

Capital and Financial Account (KA)
Purchases and payments are made that hope to create future revenues and obligations
  KA Real and Financial Assets

Stocks, Bonds, Land, Companies, Franchises, ….

Reserves
Used to balance out accounts if Current Accounts don’t equal Capital and Financial Accounts
  Official Reserves
Gold and Currency Holdings
  Official Settlements
Also Gold and Currency Holdings
  Special Drawing Rights at the IMF
Funds held by the International Monetary Fund

BOP Assets or Credits

A positive number for a nation
  Currency Inflows

Wealth amounts coming into a country as a result of the transaction
  Currency Demand

Wealth amounts are therefore demand for the currency of the country


BOP Liabilities or Debits
A negative number for a nation

  Currency Outflows

Wealth amounts leaving a country as a result of the transaction
  Currency Supply

Wealth amounts are therefore supply of the currency moving out of the country




                                           Final Word on Balances

There is constant news and discussion about the USA’s massive and increasing Trade Deficit.  This is most obvious in the imbalance of imports versus exports, where the US imports hundreds of billions more annually that it exports.   The two major culprits are usually:  oil imports and trade with China.  We do export lots of
items, mostly heavy equipment and services, but those amounts do not equal the oil imported and the lack of ability to sell goods to China. 

  Economists correctly point out that what really occurs is that oil producing nations and China turn around and use lots of the extra dollars they receive and invest in US stocks and bonds (Capital and Financial Account Asset for the US).

  The debate continues however when countries like China try to use their huge dollar holdings to attempt to buy car companies (Hummer) and ports and oil companies (blocked by the US government).   We also worry about China’s moves to buy the entire Panama Canal and large sets of resources in Africa, etc. 

  Still, economists often insist that the problems are overblown.  “How about the issue of foreign ownership?  By the end of 2003, Americans owned assets abroad
valued at market prices of $7.86 trillion, while foreigners owned US assets valued at market prices of $10.52 trillion.  The net international investment position of the United States, therefore, was $2.66 trillion.  This was only about 8.5 percent of the U.S. capital stock” (Herbert Stein)

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